Editor’s Note: The following column was written on Monday, the day before the Primary Election in Maryland:

No smart columnist would try analyzing an election that hasn’t happened yet. On the other hand, if people can vote before Election Day (early voting), what’s wrong with analyzing its outcome before Election Day (early writing).

So, here’s my analysis of how, tomorrow, Anthony Brown defeated Doug Gansler by a (fill in the blank) margin.

Here’s how Brown won:

 

Timing

In 2011 the Maryland legislature switched the primary election from September to June compressing the campaign from five months to two. Brown and Gansler adopted opposite strategies: Brown launched an early campaign (May 2013) and, just as important, quickly converted a likely opponent, Ken Ulman, into his running mate.

Gansler chose to delay his launch giving Brown a big head start, undercutting Gansler’s perception as front-runner and adding to his difficulty finding a running mate. Choosing to delay was a judgment call that worked for Larry Hogan in the Republican primary but not for Gansler.

Ganslergate

Just as Gansler was beginning to mobilize, he was hit (no coincidence) by revelations (some withheld for months) of his questionable conduct ranging from his state troopers to an Ocean City teen drinking party. That’s how he was introduced to the voters and he never fully recovered.

According to a June Washington Post poll, 27 percent of Dem voters said those images were a major factor in their vote. In comparison, only 28 percent of Dems said Brown’s role in Maryland’s Obamacare website fiasco was a major factor. Wow, a $200 million web site disaster and a teenage drinking party have equal impact, what a world.

Brown’s Teflon

The O’Malley/Brown administration suffered two big flubs in 2013, and Brown escaped blame for both. In April the feds busted the Baltimore city jail because it was being run by the Black Guerrilla Family, not by the state corrections department. Then, in October, Maryland’s much ballyhooed Obamacare website crashed, a national embarrassment.

In both cases the Democratic state legislature protected Brown by deferring investigations until after the election or blaming others.

Likewise, a friendly media held Brown blameless. The Baltimore Sun refused to endorse attorney general candidate Jon Cardin because, when charged with malfeasance “his immediate response was to dodge questions and avoid accountability.” Yet, a week later, the Sun endorsed Brown excusing his website mismanagement by saying “The buck stops with Gov. Martin O’Malley, not Mr. Brown.” Huh?

Contented Democrats

 

No Maryland lieutenant governor has succeeded to the governor’s office because, in most cases, voters are sick of the administration. In 1978 it was Marvin Mandel’s criminal conviction, in 2002 it was Parris Glendening’s personal life scandals and widespread unpopularity. But, this election, Brown benefited from running in a closed Democratic primary where most Dems were happy with the O’Malley record.

The black vote

Maryland’s black vote was always Brown’s ace in the hole. Only three states have a higher black population